A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
